Molly Ayala
Ukraine has been facing electricity shortages due to Russia's invasion, which has extensively targeted power plants and energy infrastructure. The attacks have disrupted essential services, including water distribution, sanitation, heating, and the economy, with potentially devastating consequences as winter approaches. To address the shortages, Ukraine has implemented electricity usage restrictions and sought to increase electricity imports from neighbouring European countries. Additionally, Ukraine is exploring renewable energy sources and improving air defence systems to protect its energy infrastructure.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Electricity Generation Capacity Before Full-Scale Invasion | 32 GW |
| Actual Electricity Generation Before Full-Scale Invasion | 25 GW |
| Electricity Generation Capacity as of 2024 | 9 GW |
| Electricity Generation in 1991 | 296 TWh |
| Electricity Generation in 1999 | 171 TWh |
| Electricity Consumption in 2014 | 134 TWh |
| Electricity Production in 2015 | 146 TWh |
| Electricity Exports to Europe in 2014 | 8 TWh |
| Electricity Imports from Europe in 2024 | 2 GW |
| Electricity Trade Limit with Europe in 2023 | 1.7 GW |
| Electricity Trade Limit with Europe in 2024 | 2.1 GW |
| Electricity Interconnection with Hungary | 750 kV |
| Electricity Interconnection with Poland | 220 kV |
| Electricity Interconnection with Moldova | 5 x 110 kV |
| Electricity Infrastructure Damage Since October 10, 2022 | 30% |
| Electricity Generation Capacity Destroyed | 9 GW |
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What You'll Learn
Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Ukraine's power system was initially interconnected with the Russian and Belarussian grids. However, since 2017, Ukraine has sought to divest itself of dependency on the Unified Power System of Russia and instead connect with the synchronous grid of Continental Europe. On the day Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine had just disconnected from the Russian and Belarusian system, performing a planned test of "isolated mode" operation.
Russia has launched waves of missile and drone strikes against energy in Ukraine as part of its invasion. The strikes have targeted civilian areas beyond the battlefield, particularly critical power infrastructure, which is considered a war crime. By mid-2024, the country only had a third of its pre-war electricity-generating capacity, and some gas distribution and district heating had been hit. On 10 October 2022, Russia attacked the power grid throughout Ukraine, including in Kyiv, with a wave of 84 cruise missiles and 24 suicide drones. By 19 November 2022, nearly half of the country's power grid was out of commission, and 10 million Ukrainians were without electricity, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In November 2024, Russia unleashed its second big attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure that month, triggering deep power cuts across the country. More than 1 million people lost power in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, and millions more had their existing schedule of rolling power cuts intensified. Ukraine's air force said Russia used 91 missiles and 97 drones in the attack, with 12 hitting their targets, most of which were energy and fuel facilities.
The worst-case scenario is the depopulation of cities. Russian missile strikes have been degrading Ukraine's energy infrastructure for months. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine could generate up to 32 gigawatts (GW) of power, with actual generation closer to 25 GW. Today, Ukraine struggles to produce nine. While rolling power cuts have been uncomfortable in the summer, the inability to heat homes could prove deadly in winter. Ukrainian cities have centralized systems for water, sewage, and heating, and power cuts put the provision of all three at risk.
The foremost requirement to ensure energy security in Ukraine is the supply of additional air defence systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. The provision of Patriot batteries and interceptors is critical, as are shorter-range systems for defeating Shahed-136 cruise munitions. Air defence alone will not stop transformer substations and other critical parts of the system from being damaged. However, it limits damage and buys time.
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Ukraine's energy security and imports from neighbouring countries
Ukraine's energy security has been under threat since the Russian invasion in 2022. Russian missile and drone strikes have targeted energy infrastructure, causing extensive damage to the country's power grid and limiting electricity supply to Ukrainian civilians. This has resulted in rolling power cuts and blackouts across the country, with some cities experiencing outages for 12 hours or more per day during the summer months.
To address the energy deficit, Ukraine has been importing electricity from neighbouring countries. In November 2023, the limit on cross-border trade with continental Europe was increased to 1.7 GW. As of June 2024, Ukraine's total imports were close to 2 GW for a few hours every day, with efforts being made to further increase the trade limit. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) has played a crucial role in coordinating the emergency synchronisation of Ukraine's power system with that of continental Europe.
In addition to imports, Ukraine is also focusing on enhancing domestic production. DTEK Energy, the country's largest coal producer, has increased its operations, and there are plans to install more small gas-turbine generators to generate electricity flexibly and reduce blackouts. The development of renewable energy sources, such as small hydroelectric plants, and wind and solar power, is also a priority for Ukraine.
However, the energy deficit in Ukraine is expected to worsen during the winter months, as demand for electricity and heating increases. There are concerns that vulnerable populations, including older persons, people with disabilities, internally displaced persons, and lower-income households, will be disproportionately affected by the energy crisis. To mitigate the risks, Ukraine and its partners are working to improve the country's energy security ahead of winter, including the provision of additional air defence systems and the stockpiling of compatible transformers.
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The impact of attacks on essential services
Ukraine's energy system has been under attack since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Russian missile and drone strikes have targeted civilian areas, particularly critical power infrastructure, which is considered a war crime. These assaults have destroyed around 9 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity, compromising essential services and causing rolling power cuts across the country.
The destruction of energy infrastructure has had a far-reaching impact on the lives of civilians in Ukraine. It has disrupted water distribution, sewage and sanitation systems, heating and hot water, public health, education, and the economy. Vulnerable populations, including older persons, people with disabilities, the internally displaced, and lower-income households, have been particularly affected. The inability to heat homes during the winter months could have deadly consequences.
To manage the power deficit, Ukraine's state-owned electricity transmission system operator, Ukrenergo, has implemented rolling cuts to supply, limiting electricity provision in the worst-affected regions to a few hours per day. Ukrainian authorities have also announced restrictions on electricity usage nationwide, and the mayor of Kyiv has asked residents to refrain from using major electrical appliances. These measures are intended to stabilise the national energy system and prevent complete blackouts as winter approaches.
International efforts to support Ukraine's energy security have included increasing electricity export capacity from neighbouring EU countries and providing additional air defence systems to intercept Russian missile attacks. However, the ongoing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure continue to pose a serious nuclear safety risk and threaten key aspects of life for civilians as winter approaches.
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Ukraine's shift from nuclear fuel supplied by Russia
Ukraine has been working to reduce its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel since the 2010s, when it received all of its nuclear fuel from Russia. In 2008, Ukraine began receiving nuclear fuel from Westinghouse Electric Company, and by 2016, Westinghouse was supplying fuel for six of Ukraine's VVER-1000 nuclear reactors, with Russia's share reduced to 55%. In 2018, Westinghouse's contract to supply VVER fuel was extended to 2025.
Ukraine's shift away from Russian nuclear fuel has been driven by a desire to reduce economic dependence on Russia, particularly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This shift has also been supported by funding from the United States, which provided $250 million in 2018 to build a spent nuclear fuel storage facility, eliminating the need to ship spent fuel to Russia.
In addition to diversifying its fuel sources, Ukraine has also been working to integrate its electricity system with the European grid. In 2022, Ukraine disconnected from the post-Soviet IPS/UPS grid and synchronized with the Synchronous grid of Continental Europe. This integration has been crucial in maintaining Ukraine's electricity security during the Russian invasion, which has targeted critical power infrastructure. By mid-2024, Ukraine only had a third of its pre-war electricity-generating capacity due to these attacks.
To mitigate the impact of the reduced generating capacity, Ukraine has focused on increasing electricity imports from Western neighbours, improving interconnections with Poland, Slovakia, and Moldova, and installing more small gas-turbine generators, which are more difficult to attack than large power plants. However, as of 2024, Ukraine's imports of approximately 2 GW were still not enough to cover peak demand.
Overall, Ukraine's shift away from Russian nuclear fuel has been a complex and ongoing process, involving diversifying fuel sources, integrating with the European grid, and enhancing domestic production. These efforts have been critical in maintaining Ukraine's energy security during the conflict with Russia.
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The need for air defence systems and interceptors
Ukraine has been vulnerable to attacks on its energy infrastructure for the last two and a half years. Russian missile and drone strikes have degraded Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing an acute power deficit. The bulk of Ukraine's electricity generation is nuclear, and the system is inflexible. The country has been unable to produce enough energy to meet its peak demand, resulting in rolling power cuts and blackouts.
To address this, Ukraine needs additional air defence systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. The provision of Patriot batteries and interceptors is critical, as are shorter-range systems for defeating cruise munitions. Air defence systems can limit damage and buy time, even if they do not stop all attacks. Furthermore, layered defences that mix more and less expensive systems are more cost-effective and can provide better protection.
Ukraine has been working to strengthen its air defences and has achieved some success. In April 2022, the Pentagon noted that Ukraine had maintained and repaired its fleet of fixed-wing aircraft with the help of spare parts and equipment provided by the United States. Additionally, Ukrainian air defences had shot down 55 Russian warplanes since the start of the invasion, thanks to the use of Buk and S-300 air defence systems.
However, the need for more air defence systems and interceptors remains critical. Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks and maintain its energy security depends on it.
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Frequently asked questions
Since the 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine has been suffering from extensive damage to its power infrastructure due to Russian missile and drone strikes. This has resulted in a significant loss of electricity generation capacity, with the country only having a third of its pre-war capacity by mid-2024. The destruction of energy infrastructure has disrupted essential services such as water distribution, sanitation, heating, and public health.
Ukraine has been working to enhance its domestic coal production and is also receiving electricity imports from neighbouring European countries. In November 2023, the limit on cross-border trade increased to 1.7 GW, and there are plans to further increase this limit to 2.1 GW from December 2024. Ukraine is also installing more small gas-turbine generators, which are more difficult to attack, and improving interconnections with neighbouring countries.
The electricity shortage in Ukraine has resulted in rolling power cuts and blackouts across the country, with some cities experiencing outages for 12 hours or more per day. These outages have disrupted daily life and businesses, and the potential for even longer outages during the winter months poses profound risks to the health and safety of Ukraine's population.
The international community has been providing support to Ukraine to repair and restore its energy systems. The foremost requirement to ensure energy security is the supply of additional air defence systems capable of intercepting Russian missile attacks. Stockpiling compatible transformers and improving nuclear safety measures are also crucial to protecting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
