Beatrice Lang
The world needs 2 billion electric vehicles on the road to reach net zero by 2050. This has raised concerns about whether there is enough lithium to meet the demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Lithium is a key component in EV batteries, and the surge in demand for EVs has put a strain on global lithium supplies. While the world has enough lithium reserves to meet the expected rise in demand, the challenge lies in scaling up production and ensuring that the lithium is of high enough quality for battery use. Recycling lithium from batteries and reducing the use of scarce metals will play a crucial role in addressing this issue. Recent discoveries of large lithium reserves in the US and the development of new extraction methods also offer potential solutions to the question of whether there is enough lithium for the EV revolution.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Current global lithium production | 100,000 tons (90.7 million kg) |
| Current global lithium reserves | 22 million tons (20 billion kg) |
| Lithium required for a single EV battery | 8 kg |
| Number of EV batteries that could be produced with current reserves | 2.5 billion |
| Number of EVs required to achieve net zero | 2 billion |
| Potential lithium reserves in the U.S. | 5-19 million tons |
| Importance of recycling lithium | Crucial to reduce demand for new lithium and improve sustainability and affordability |
| Challenges to recycling lithium | Lack of policies and infrastructure |
| Outlook | Need to scale up production and improve recycling infrastructure |
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What You'll Learn
The world has enough lithium for electric vehicles
The world has enough lithium to meet the current demand for electric vehicles (EVs). However, with the surge in EV sales, the demand for lithium is expected to exceed supply soon. According to the US Geological Survey, global lithium production totalled 100,000 tons (90.7 million kg) in 2021, while worldwide reserves stand at about 22 million tons (20 billion kg). At this rate, enough lithium was mined last year to produce just under 11.4 million EV batteries. With our current 22 million tons of reserves, we'd get 2.8 billion EVs.
The world will need to scale up lithium production this decade to keep up with the rising demand for EVs. The good news is that recycling can play a crucial role in ensuring a stable supply of lithium. Recycling lithium from retired batteries can reduce the need to extract new lithium from the ground. Research shows that with a high rate of battery recycling, there are enough explored or prospective reserves to electrify the global transportation sector using current technology.
Additionally, the discovery of new lithium reserves can further boost supply. For example, a recent study by the USGS estimates that the Smackover formation in Southern Arkansas may contain between 5 million and 19 million tons of lithium, potentially enough to meet global demand through 2030.
While the world has enough lithium for EVs in the short term, the long-term outlook depends on our ability to scale up production, improve recycling rates, and discover new reserves.
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Demand for lithium is rising
The average EV currently needs around 8 kilograms of lithium. Global lithium production totalled 100,000 tons (90.7 million kg) last year, according to the US Geological Survey. This was enough to make just under 11.4 million EV batteries. However, global EV purchases jumped to 6.6 million in 2021, up from 3 million the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This means that lithium demand could soon exceed supply.
The world has enough lithium to meet the expected rise in demand, but the challenge is in scaling up production. The IEA notes that only a handful of companies can produce high-quality, high-purity lithium products, and there is a question mark over how quickly they can increase their capacity.
Recycling lithium from batteries at the end of their life could also help to meet the rising demand. Research shows that there are enough explored or prospective reserves to electrify the global transportation sector if a high amount of battery recycling occurs. Recycling can secure a local supply of materials and reduce the need to extract more lithium from the ground. However, recycling is not currently required in the US, and the lack of infrastructure and processing capacity could lead to material shortages.
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Recycling lithium is important
The world currently has enough lithium for electric vehicles, but production needs to be scaled up to keep up with rising demand. Recycling lithium can help close the loop on producing new batteries and reduce the need to extract new lithium. This is especially important as the process of extracting lithium can be slow, with lithium projects taking up to eight years to get permitted in the US.
Recycling lithium also has significantly less environmental impact than extracting new lithium. It can help reduce air pollution and climate change by reusing the minerals from electric vehicles instead of continually extracting and burning fossil fuels. Recycling lithium can also help secure a local supply of materials and reduce the need for new material demand, keeping costs down.
Research shows that there are enough explored or prospective reserves to electrify the global transportation sector using current technology if a high amount of battery recycling occurs. This scenario estimates that global demand in 2100 will amount to about 50% of lithium reserves. Therefore, recycling lithium is important to ensure the long-term sustainability of electric vehicles.
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The US has a large lithium reserve
The US has some of the largest lithium reserves in the world. According to the US Geological Survey, the US has at least 14 million metric tons of lithium reserves. A study by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) found that the Smackover formation in Southern Arkansas may contain between 5 million and 19 million tons of lithium, which is about nine times the estimated global demand for lithium through 2030. The US also has the world's largest lithium producer, Albemarle, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. Albemarle plans to reopen the Kings Mountain mine in North Carolina, which was shut down in 1988 due to cheaper deposits in Chile.
The US currently has only one active lithium mine in Nevada, manufacturing just 1% of global lithium production. However, with rising global demand for electric vehicles, the US government has been seeking to cut its reliance on foreign nations, particularly China, for lithium batteries and parts. President Joe Biden is courting domestic lithium production, and companies like ExxonMobil are ambitiously planning to become one of the country's biggest lithium producers.
While the US has vast lithium reserves, there are concerns about the environmental impact of mining and opposition from local communities, especially those living near tribal lands. As lithium is a critical component of electric vehicle batteries, the US aims to increase domestic production to reap the benefits of the decarbonized future. However, it is important to note that reducing the use of scarce metals and recycling them will also play a crucial role in the transition to electric vehicles.
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There is a bottleneck in lithium supply
Global lithium production totalled 100,000 tons last year, while worldwide reserves stand at about 22 million tons. At this rate of production, there was enough lithium mined last year to produce batteries for just under 11.4 million electric vehicles. With rising demand for electric vehicles, lithium demand could soon exceed supply.
The US, for instance, has set a goal for all new cars sold by 2030 to be electric, and President Biden has offered a credit of up to $7,500 to encourage people to switch to electric vehicles. However, the US has fallen behind in lithium production, with a very slow permitting process for lithium-related projects. This has contributed to a lack of supply, causing battery material prices to rise.
To address the bottleneck in lithium supply, several solutions can be considered:
- Scaling up production: Increasing the number of lithium mining and processing facilities can help boost production to meet the rising demand for electric vehicles.
- Expediting permitting processes: Governments, especially in the US, can streamline and expedite the permitting process for lithium-related projects to reduce the time lag in bringing new production capacity online.
- Recycling: Promoting and incentivizing the recycling of lithium-ion batteries can help reduce the demand for newly mined lithium. Recycling can secure a local supply of materials, decrease new material demand, and keep costs down.
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Frequently asked questions
The world has enough lithium, but the current production rate is not keeping up with the rising demand for electric vehicles.
The demand for lithium is increasing as electric vehicles become more popular. A single electric car contains about 8 kilograms of lithium in its battery.
Recycling lithium from batteries is key to ensuring enough supply. Research shows that with high battery recycling rates, there are enough reserves to electrify the global transportation sector.
Recycling lithium-ion batteries can help secure a local supply of materials and reduce the need to extract new materials, thus keeping costs down. It also has significantly less environmental impact than mining for new materials.
A recent study found that the Smackover formation in Southern Arkansas may contain 9 times the estimated global demand for lithium through 2030.
