Wiktor Wise
In the United States, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. If neither candidate reaches this threshold, a contingent election is triggered, where the House of Representatives elects the president from the top three candidates, and the Senate elects the vice president from the top two. In the case of a 269-269 tie, the House and Senate would take over and elect the president and vice president, respectively. This scenario has sparked discussions about the legitimacy of a president who does not win the popular vote and the potential for division within the population.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of electoral votes required to win the presidency | 270 |
| What happens if a candidate wins 269 electoral votes? | The election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. |
| What is this called? | Contingent election |
| Number of votes required to win in the House of Representatives | 26 |
| Who elects the Vice-President? | The Senate |
| Number of votes required to win the Vice-Presidency | 51 |
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What You'll Learn
The election would be in the hands of Congress
In the United States, the president is not chosen by a national popular vote. Instead, the Electoral College vote totals determine the winner. A candidate must receive an absolute majority of 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. If a candidate wins 269 electoral votes, they will not have reached the required threshold and the election will be in the hands of Congress.
In this scenario, the House of Representatives and the Senate would take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively. The House chooses the president from among the top three presidential electoral vote-getters, with each state delegation having one vote. Senators, on the other hand, cast votes individually to elect the vice president from among the top two vice-presidential electoral vote-getters.
The outcome of the 2024 down-ballot races could have a significant impact on the election, as the new Congress, sworn in on January 6, 2025, could decide the fate of the presidential candidates. It is worth noting that the possibility of a 269-269 split is considered unusual, and it could lead to a "dysfunctional" situation, with potential division within the population and abroad.
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The House votes based on state delegations
If a candidate wins 269 electoral votes, the election result will be a tie. In the event of a tie, the election goes to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation has one vote. This is known as a contingent election, and it could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.
In a contingent election, the House members do not vote individually but instead, each state delegation casts one vote. This means that the majority party in each state delegation decides the vote for that state. A majority of states, or 26 out of 50, is required to win the presidency.
The process of the House voting based on state delegations can be complex and may lead to unexpected results. For example, a state's delegation could be majority Republican, but the state's electoral vote could go to the Democratic candidate. This scenario raises questions about how the Republican members of Congress should vote in that situation. Should they vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in their state, or follow their party loyalties?
The contingent election process can also lead to division within Congress and the country. There may be disputes and fights in Congress, with some members arguing for a clear winner to avoid a split decision. Additionally, the outcome of the election may differ between the popular vote and the contingent election, which could further divide the population and affect the legitimacy of the winning candidate.
The House voting based on state delegations in a contingent election is a rare occurrence, but it is a possibility that needs to be considered in close elections. It highlights the complexities of the electoral process and the potential for unexpected outcomes.
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The Senate votes as individual senators
In the event of a 269-269 Electoral College tie, the election goes to Congress, with the House of Representatives voting based on state delegations and the Senate voting as individual senators. This means that each senator casts one vote for Vice President. The District of Columbia does not participate in the vote as it has no senators.
For a candidate to be elected Vice President, they must receive a majority of senators' votes (51). It is likely that, in this partisan era, most senators would vote along party lines.
The 2024 election was particularly politically charged, and the possibility of a 269-269 split was discussed. This would have meant that the new Congress, sworn in on January 6, 2025, would decide whether Trump returned to the White House or Kamala Harris became the first female president of the United States.
There is also the possibility of a "faithless elector", where an Electoral College member flips and votes for the opposing candidate. This is illegal in some states and frowned upon in others.
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The outcome of the 2024 down-ballot races could be monumental
In the context of an election, the term "down-ballot" refers to running or voting for offices listed below the "most important"—typically national—race on a ballot. In a presidential election, Senate and House seats and contests for state and local offices are considered down-ballot.
Down-ballot races are important because they have a significant impact on citizens' daily lives. Local elections allow citizens to come together and agree on a range of issues that transcend partisanship, such as safe streets, good schools, and access to parks and outdoor recreation.
In the 2024 election, if neither candidate receives 270 electoral votes, the election for President is decided by the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. This is known as a contingent election. The outcome of the 2024 down-ballot races could be monumental, as the new Congress could decide whether Trump returns to the White House or Harris becomes the first female president in US history.
The possibility of a 269-269 tie in the 2024 election has raised concerns about the legitimacy of the eventual president, especially if the House elects a candidate who did not win the popular vote. This could further divide an already polarized nation and generate division within the population and abroad.
The impact of down-ballot races extends beyond the local level. They can serve as a stepping stone for politicians aspiring to higher office. County commissioners, state senators, and representatives often run for Congress, governor, and even president. Therefore, the outcome of the 2024 down-ballot races could have long-lasting repercussions, shaping not only the immediate future but also the trajectory of American politics for years to come.
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Could a majority GOP delegation of 28 states find itself below the 26-state threshold?
In the event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the election for President would be decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of 26 states is required to win. As of early February 2025, Republicans held a 30-18 advantage in House delegations. This could change depending on the outcome of the general election.
The size of state delegations to the House varies, with each state guaranteed at least one Representative and the total size determined by population. For instance, after the 2020 Census, California, the most populous state, was accorded 52 Representatives.
In 2022, Republicans gained seats in 12 states, while Democrats lost seats in those same states or a combination of the two. New York and Florida experienced the largest swings towards the Republicans, with Democrats losing four seats and Republicans gaining three in both states.
While it is unclear how many states the GOP delegation currently controls, it is possible that they could hold a majority of 28 states. However, this majority could be reduced to below the 26-state threshold if there are changes in state delegation compositions. This could occur through shifts in population that alter the size of some state delegations, as seen after the 2020 Census, or through changes in partisan composition, as happened in 12 states in 2022.
Therefore, while a majority GOP delegation of 28 states is theoretically possible, it could find itself below the 26-state threshold due to various factors that can influence the composition and size of state delegations over time.
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Frequently asked questions
If a candidate wins 269 electoral votes, the election results in a tie. This is known as a "contingent election", and the House of Representatives will decide the president from the top three candidates with the most electoral votes, and the Senate will decide the vice president from the top two.
Each state delegation in the House gets one vote, and the candidate that receives the majority of votes (26) wins the presidency.
Each senator gets one vote, and the candidate that receives the majority of votes (51) wins the vice presidency.
